World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c90460e6715acc3382c411f8786b5d944b4cc1472599593a72c07c3e28f9d45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 37c | 2,337$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.88 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 39c | 547.6$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 498.3$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 60c | 410.19$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 325.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.31 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 302$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 68c | 301.93$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 30c | 290.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 284.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 239.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 51c | 196.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 186$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 176.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 37c | 167.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 166.7$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 162.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 67c | 162.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 49c | 159.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 155$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.51 | 319 | 53.3%170 W · 149 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 146.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 140.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 8c | 136.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 128.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 39c | 128$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 32c | 126.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 64c | 123.02$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 121.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 61c | 116.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 63c | 106.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 103.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 103.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 30c | 92.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 89.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 25c | 89.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 31c | 88.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 32c | 87.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 48c | 85.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ec…3a46backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +192.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 76.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 75.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 74.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 33c | 71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 26c | 67.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 34c | 64.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 42c | 64.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 64.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 198 | 69.2%137 W · 61 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 23c | 63.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 61.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 60.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 18c | 56.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 55.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 79c | 53.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 50.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 58c | 49.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 48.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 398 | 13.8%55 W · 343 L | -72.7wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 67c | 47.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3618backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…4f1fbacked Yes | 27c | 45.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 43.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 60c | 40.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 26c | 40.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 34c | 38.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 37.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 68c | 37.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 63c | 36.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 68c | 34.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 34.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…1ca0backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 62c | 32.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed No | 66c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 62c | 31.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 30.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 29.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 34c | 29.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +104%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 27.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 189 | 56.6%107 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 72c | 27.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 68c | 25.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 74c | 25.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 68c | 24.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…e849backed No | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 58c | 21.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…2d3dbacked Yes | 73c | 21.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.