MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd812281f01c3468a4dde6fe9132e0dbe8ff0bc2cdee7b39247cb983b998b8a22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof New York Mets, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3d5…dba4backed New York Mets | 69c | 13,356$9,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,205.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 11,935$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,233.93 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed New York Mets | 67c | 4,377$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,932.42 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 3,333$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.11 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 2,515$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.15 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 2,020$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.92 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed New York Mets | 66c | 1,422$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.71 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 1,000$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.37 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed New York Mets | 67c | 686$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 616.07$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.18 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2155backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 558.82$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f2…a661backed New York Mets | 69c | 521.74$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 55cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Mets | 68c | 396.87$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.87 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…b9a6backed New York Mets | 69c | 378.26$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 366.91$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…80febacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 341.18$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 300.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.19 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…c228backed New York Mets | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked New York Mets | 67c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed New York Mets | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed New York Mets | 63c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked New York Mets | 66c | 40.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Miami Marlins | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed New York Mets | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.