Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82ea0c8f9e6b1d3fc5d5a56e16195e25dde8e141c58d7a6a61d9a00f1b71589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 21c | 2,119$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed Yes | 77c | 1,731$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe204…cfb5backed No | 19c | 450$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 10c | 404.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 17c | 344.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…7e15backed No | 60c | 339.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 40c | 323.62$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.22 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…1482backed No | 12c | 261.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 78c | 195.91$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.13 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 48c | 186.48$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…1167backed Yes | 79c | 162.2$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd8…4edbbacked No | 70c | 148.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 134.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…5369backed Yes | 77c | 130.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 121.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 112.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 56c | 108.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…e348backed Yes | 79c | 91.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 77.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 39c | 75.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…8fb6backed No | 20c | 75.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 72.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 68.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 54c | 61.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 45c | 60.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 64c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…7debbacked Yes | 79c | 52.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…bb7bbacked Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 50c | 49.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 45c | 43.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…c505backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 34.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0f…72ddbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb03a…f703backed Yes | 79c | 28.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fc…ffd9backed Yes | 67c | 28.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…6e96backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9e…6198backed Yes | 53c | 23.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…cd4ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…6b31backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…775cbacked Yes | 80c | 17.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.