Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccb964e992933c1414fb8f8dbd5dc027a264eafc572089bfd9303033c5909cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 1,781$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.23 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,233$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 17c | 306.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 79c | 229.26$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…e348backed No | 79c | 222$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 211.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…fe39backed No | 48c | 172.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 45c | 125.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes | 49c | 101.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 89.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 74.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 72.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…248abacked Yes | 44c | 70.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 63.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 34c | 61.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 56c | 50.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 30c | 48.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed No | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 46.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0f…2458backed No | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed No | 65c | 43.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…c149backed Yes | 44c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Yes | 32c | 40.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…1829backed Yes | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 25.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab0…8463backed No | 60c | 23.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 80c | 20.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…639bbacked Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 75c | 16.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on January 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on January 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on January 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.