Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83357482a40a38180576248b7795c36c725b72ac32000a71675cf8d26f2c899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 613.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…9cd1backed Yes | 73c | 404.1$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 69c | 401.37$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 366 | 57.4%210 W · 156 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 25c | 277.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 250.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 42c | 196.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 175.95$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 164.02$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 56c | 152.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 153 | 39.2%60 W · 93 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 150.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 130.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 41c | 130.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 576 | 54.3%313 W · 263 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 119.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 111$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 110.85$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 106.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 26c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 82.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd069…d078backed No | 70c | 79.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 38c | 65.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 16c | 61.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 57.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 53c | 48.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 48.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked No | 67c | 44.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 77c | 44.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 43.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5552…6f16backed Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 26c | 41.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 39.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 42c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 493 | 63.5%313 W · 180 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…b067backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 73cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…5e29backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 77c | 26.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 80c | 23.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd6…7453backed No | 78c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 72c | 22.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…8286backed No | 77c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.