Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd83c9d0cad3b4644dda18cc211b99342fb92754caed67c56ce5292ecc546f841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49e4…6db2backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…348fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +476.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 41c | 414.65$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 43c | 337.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.18 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 31c | 322.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.83 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 14c | 200$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…5bf4backed No | 56c | 192.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 44c | 130.72$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 122.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e7…05e6backed Yes | 45c | 108.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 59c | 88.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed Yes | 55c | 88.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 15c | 74.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 59.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 58.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 47.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 38.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed No | 47c | 32.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…533bbacked Yes | 31c | 31.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8e…30b5backed No | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 27.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed No | 72c | 25.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fe…4a5bbacked No | 76c | 24.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…5cf7backed No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…0685backed No | 68c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d47…ae69backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…9675backed No | 62c | 17.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 52°F or higher on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on January 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.