NFL · resolved market
Dolphins vs. Commanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8539357e014b7d3c37786f1a2262c0f898643ba4b1043dfef2764e65a4bd773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Dolphins, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,594
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,594 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Commanders | 16c | 3,338$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.41 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Commanders | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Dolphins | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Dolphins | 65c | 1,364$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.82 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Dolphins | 53c | 1,147$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.53 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Commanders | 26c | 952.32$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Commanders | 35c | 490$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.5 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…365fbacked Dolphins | 75c | 328$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Commanders | 47c | 318$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Dolphins | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Dolphins | 71c | 225.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Commanders | 46c | 222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Commanders | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Dolphins | 65c | 190$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Dolphins | 68c | 150.04$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Commanders | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Dolphins | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Commanders | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b762backed Commanders | 21c | 84.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Dolphins | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Dolphins | 52c | 33.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…30e6backed Commanders | 48c | 33.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…bc10backed Dolphins | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.