TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on July 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,330
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,330 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No68c789.9$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.921,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes79c691.1$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.4350648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x556b…4e33backed No64c597.81$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.967342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c384.2$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No19c374.2$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.7684124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No20c355.79$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.054,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No6c315.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9589544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No44c304.99$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.262,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c302.17$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.075,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No34c286.73$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No28c283.91$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.54,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes30c283.81$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f12…9424backed Yes76c261.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7317553.7%94 W · 81 L+9.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd48…1e93backed Yes39c254.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.357852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No62c252.01$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9163538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes32c220$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked Yes56c216.39$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.398749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes57c205.94$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.6554154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes43c204.72$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.747934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes32c192.92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.294,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No41c184.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.033,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No33c158.84$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.771,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes48c156.72$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.856,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2545238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes31c148.47$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.751,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes29c141.05$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.462,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c129.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.933,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c124.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.846,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c121.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.018,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No45c120.32$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.621,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2049…c390backed Yes35c115.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.861225%3 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x914d…dd11backed No14c113$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3110246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No14c101.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No69c92.16$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7634151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No27c84.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9556322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc89f…14a9backed No56c83.68$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5318650.5%94 W · 92 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes48c81.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.151,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No50c79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.682,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No49c78.37$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0345162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.774,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c65.81$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes47c62.46$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1366758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes53c53.68$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.352,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5548…9cc6backed No73c52.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5619757.4%113 W · 84 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c51.79$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.584,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes65c51.76$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9992028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes45c50.9$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2857747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.535063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.063,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.72347.8%11 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.85829.3%17 W · 41 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No71c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.53,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked No59c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4415630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42aa…7d26backed Yes35c39.11$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.428246.3%38 W · 44 L-8.4wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c38.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.074,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No68c33.68$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.874,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf69…6f13backed Yes63c31.88$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.719546.3%44 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04ed…8809backed Yes73c31.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.616659.1%39 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.834,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9126025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No68c29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8527769%191 W · 86 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No66c29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1447569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No65c28.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.573,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked No52c27.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1428946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No71c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4699571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No71c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.652,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked No67c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7523677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda33…cd9abacked No68c24.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.45666.1%37 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9184…67bbbacked Yes62c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes47c22.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1218862.8%118 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No70c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3825868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x254a…dacbbacked No71c21.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3216950.9%86 W · 83 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No63c16.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6716161.5%99 W · 62 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf15b…8c10backed No70c16.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.529366.7%62 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No71c15.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1833654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68cf…8cf8backed No70c14.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.067346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.