UFC · resolved market
Malott vs. Giles
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd88b9198052f23bca09b56a5843724d87cb8ab11dd7e426bdef069988097e6b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Malottof Malott, Giles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e23…c21bbacked Giles | 1c | 20,014$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Malott | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Giles | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Giles | 28c | 235.61$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Giles | 28c | 112.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Malott | 71c | 106.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Giles | 17c | 103.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…c2eabacked Giles | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Giles | 25c | 88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Giles | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Malott | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Malott | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…286ebacked Malott | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf0…727bbacked Malott | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Malott vs. Gilesthis page
- Barriault vs. StoltzfusStoltzfus won
- Blanchfield vs. NamajunasBlanchfield won
- Machado vs. RibeiroRibeiro won
- Moreno vs. AlbaziMoreno won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.