UFC · resolved market
Blanchfield vs. Namajunas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1fdbf284708c6064c89c65d1e39836128fc86569e591168a9c7c06f9e4cd5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blanchfieldof Blanchfield, Namajunas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Blanchfield | 56c | 1,559$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Namajunas | 42c | 1,200$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Namajunas | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Blanchfield | 58c | 996.1$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.36 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Blanchfield | 56c | 572.19$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.35 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…c21bbacked Namajunas | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Namajunas | 57c | 252.34$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Blanchfield | 55c | 228.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…8728backed Namajunas | 44c | 226.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…f107backed Blanchfield | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Namajunas | 43c | 142$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Blanchfield | 56c | 129.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Namajunas | 60c | 105$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Blanchfield | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed Namajunas | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Namajunas | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…679bbacked Blanchfield | 59c | 98.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d04…497dbacked Namajunas | 45c | 97.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Blanchfield | 54c | 97.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Blanchfield | 58c | 96.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…0467backed Namajunas | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Namajunas | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Namajunas | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Namajunas | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6a…f857backed Blanchfield | 58c | 47.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…e31ebacked Namajunas | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…c2eabacked Blanchfield | 46c | 35.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…879cbacked Blanchfield | 34c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0896…daf1backed Blanchfield | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…12e5backed Blanchfield | 55c | 30.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Blanchfield | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Blanchfield | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blanchfield vs. Namajunasthis page
- Barriault vs. StoltzfusStoltzfus won
- Machado vs. RibeiroRibeiro won
- Malott vs. GilesMalott won
- Moreno vs. AlbaziMoreno won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.