UFC · resolved market
Moreno vs. Albazi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8a29a442e42a779848a8895c752b61c4fb0c27eca1e082232eddf2599ece8a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Morenoof Moreno, Albazi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Albazi | 43c | 1,863$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Moreno | 61c | 1,500$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.97 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e23…c21bbacked Moreno | 65c | 1,299$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Albazi | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed Albazi | 35c | 982.79$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Moreno | 60c | 918.75$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.17 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Moreno | 60c | 632.28$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.91 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Albazi | 37c | 510.64$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Moreno | 62c | 429.76$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…d98bbacked Moreno | 65c | 340.84$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Albazi | 38c | 176.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6d…f343backed Albazi | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Albazi | 39c | 154.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…f107backed Moreno | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3559…0467backed Moreno | 78c | 129.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Albazi | 32c | 121.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Albazi | 20c | 109.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Albazi | 39c | 107.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…0d67backed Albazi | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Albazi | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…061fbacked Albazi | 39c | 97.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e2…6ff2backed Moreno | 63c | 90.41$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…21fbbacked Albazi | 34c | 88.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +7.4wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…e413backed Albazi | 42c | 83.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2910…c2eabacked Moreno | 71c | 77.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Albazi | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…5468backed Albazi | 39c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…5677backed Moreno | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Moreno | 59c | 53.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…6ec7backed Albazi | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f7…5513backed Albazi | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Moreno | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Albazi | 42c | 42.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…7e1ebacked Moreno | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…00c4backed Moreno | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0896…daf1backed Albazi | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac9c…22adbacked Albazi | 41c | 34.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Moreno | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…4542backed Moreno | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…a458backed Albazi | 43c | 24.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…eda7backed Moreno | 61c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Moreno | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…3b7abacked Moreno | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e5…fe31backed Moreno | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Moreno vs. Albazithis page
- Barriault vs. StoltzfusStoltzfus won
- Blanchfield vs. NamajunasBlanchfield won
- Machado vs. RibeiroRibeiro won
- Malott vs. GilesMalott won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.