MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd89606bd1ccd37c0a3ed6f4198d280b744b32927ed25d13cac85ab9ea007b53b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 20,000$11,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,002.22 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 8,000$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 6,922$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,768.8 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 5,247$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,101.11 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 3,335$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.19 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.33 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 1,976$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 1,924$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.01 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 1,872$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.46 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23c…c49fbacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 1,707$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 1,537$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.67 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 1,466$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.36 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 1,214$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.73 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 1,200$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 862.09$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.28 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 688.66$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.75 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 319$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked San Francisco Giants | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Philadelphia Phillies | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.