Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8bffef435e8132138bde4baf20b60034a64c5cc7fb24ba0eb460776e1af1cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arkansas State Red Wolvesof Troy Trojans, Arkansas State Red Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Troy Trojans | 4c | 5,657$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 65c | 863.89$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.35 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Troy Trojans | 38c | 647.01$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.86 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Troy Trojans | 30c | 501$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed20…84f1backed Troy Trojans | 37c | 123.81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 62c | 111$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 58c | 101.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Troy Trojans | 42c | 71.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…3010backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 74c | 54.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c34…c8b8backed Troy Trojans | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 143 | 39.9%57 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 76c | 47.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Troy Trojans | 42c | 38.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Troy Trojans | 37c | 34.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolvesthis page
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3.5)Arkansas State Red Wolves won
- Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 159.5Over won
- Troy Trojans vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves: O/U 160.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.