Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f10e646a1fcffdd704507c074cbfb9137b08fec72ead4b25b937be92c0e9c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 473.7$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…57ccbacked No | 55c | 182.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 146.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 37c | 123.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 119.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 119.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 77c | 112.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 91.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…394dbacked No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 74.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 70.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 70.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 70c | 67.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 65.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 64.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 62c | 58.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 62c | 57.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 55.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 36c | 54.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 76c | 52.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 48.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 49c | 45.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes | 44c | 37.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 32.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 37c | 32.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 39c | 29.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 26.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 40c | 25.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 21.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…b884backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 60c | 20.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 17.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.