Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C or higher on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f34c82f78273d817d25b5cda1ef030c5fc3ce4d93d480a141a2b7ae514a775
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 16c | 1,070$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.09 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 551.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 449.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 252.57$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 219.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 16c | 198.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 11c | 175.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked No | 76c | 137.26$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 38c | 130.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 129.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 123.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 116.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 17c | 114.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 28c | 111.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 9c | 107.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 21c | 102.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 48c | 95.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 69.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 79c | 63.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 53c | 62.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 74c | 62.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 21c | 50.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 47.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked Yes | 30c | 47.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes | 35c | 39.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 80c | 37.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 36.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 62c | 36.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 77c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 76c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked No | 80c | 27.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 76c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 58c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddd…7996backed No | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C or higher on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.