Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63fad6fb6f211dd487a1c4848787d271ede08cf49ae5987efbe82fc9fbbd2aba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 77c | 855.15$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 544$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.62 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 152.42$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 59c | 151.23$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 136.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 111$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 44c | 106.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 55c | 106.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 97.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 56c | 90.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 57c | 86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 81.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 80.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…19d9backed Yes | 63c | 79.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 55c | 77.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 77.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 76.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 71.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 44c | 67.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 65.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 65.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 64.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 64.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.39 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 56c | 56.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…48edbacked Yes | 43c | 55.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 34c | 48.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 46c | 46.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 46.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 37.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 37.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 57c | 37.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 56c | 35.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 35.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked Yes | 46c | 33.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa687…53a5backed Yes | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked Yes | 33c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 68c | 30.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 29.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…708abacked Yes | 46c | 28.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.42per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 69c | 23.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 23.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed No | 57c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 20.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C or higher on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.