WNBA · resolved market
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9075e825e1c2cdb67903106a0d6a15933c6bf44697e9ba3504f18de1a4c8305
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dallas Wingsof Las Vegas Aces, Dallas Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Las Vegas Aces | 18c | 651.58$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.84 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Dallas Wings | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Dallas Wings | 53c | 324.02$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.34 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe6…a99fbacked Las Vegas Aces | 5c | 273.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Dallas Wings | 71c | 260.78$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Las Vegas Aces | 20c | 255.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Las Vegas Aces | 20c | 243.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Las Vegas Aces | 20c | 242.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8339…caa9backed Dallas Wings | 77c | 221.54$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…0d61backed Las Vegas Aces | 71c | 141.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Las Vegas Aces | 23c | 85.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Las Vegas Aces | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 364 | 54.1%197 W · 167 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Las Vegas Aces | 25c | 68.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…be63backed Las Vegas Aces | 30c | 63.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 71c | 56.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 71cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Las Vegas Aces | 40c | 52.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Dallas Wings | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Dallas Wings | 32c | 44.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 196 | 46.9%92 W · 104 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Las Vegas Aces | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 303 | 47.2%143 W · 160 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c7…f584backed Las Vegas Aces | 66c | 36.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Las Vegas Aces | 34c | 35.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…970abacked Las Vegas Aces | 69c | 31.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…7dffbacked Las Vegas Aces | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Las Vegas Aces | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Las Vegas Aces | 67c | 19.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.