College Football · resolved market
Oklahoma State vs. UCF
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9137aa83298c4c2062f27f0e0992f197b70f200017040ae8031f06eeee8972e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UCFof Oklahoma State, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,490
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Oklahoma State | 36c | 12,520$4,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.73 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed UCF | 64c | 9,884$6,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,560.24 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Oklahoma State | 49c | 3,626$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.46 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UCF | 57c | 3,413$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.8 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Oklahoma State | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed UCF | 50c | 1,437$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.7 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked UCF | 45c | 1,089$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.18 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed UCF | 66c | 728.13$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.87 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed UCF | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Oklahoma State | 33c | 507.37$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oklahoma State | 16c | 422.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…937abacked UCF | 51c | 325.49$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.49 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d34…05d8backed Oklahoma State | 25c | 277.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…fde7backed UCF | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Oklahoma State | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Oklahoma State | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d8…2b8dbacked Oklahoma State | 33c | 192.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Oklahoma State | 55c | 180.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked Oklahoma State | 12c | 156$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UCF | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…9655backed Oklahoma State | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Oklahoma State | 16c | 149.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…cdbabacked Oklahoma State | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UCF | 53c | 139$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Oklahoma State | 18c | 110.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Oklahoma State | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed UCF | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Oklahoma State | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Oklahoma State | 16c | 89.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…d6abbacked Oklahoma State | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41c…8761backed Oklahoma State | 52c | 38.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Oklahoma State | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…dbe3backed UCF | 52c | 32.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed UCF | 69c | 32.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed UCF | 57c | 30.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed UCF | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oklahoma State | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Oklahoma State | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oklahoma State vs. UCFthis page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Oklahoma State vs. UCF: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: UCF (-13.5)Oklahoma State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.