NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 226.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd91df952d17c856a9db48410634a24020d5135a16919efd2c6457b6164c06b5e

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $121,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,541

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,778 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Over	52c	55,834$29,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,153.57	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	51c	41,074$21,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,060.87	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	25,883$12,501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,382.03	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Under	48c	20,462$9,907 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,555.56	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Under	49c	20,410$10,001 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,409.1	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-3.6wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Under	48c	20,000$9,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,500	193	51.3%99 W · 94 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	51c	9,000$4,590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,410	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Over	49c	9,000$4,410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,410	127	40.2%51 W · 76 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Under	48c	7,187$3,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,725.76	710	52.1%370 W · 340 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	50c	4,000$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Under	48c	3,600$1,728 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,872	453	48.1%218 W · 235 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	48c	2,977$1,426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,550.5	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	48c	2,352$1,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,215.34	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	48c	2,348$1,135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,213.47	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	47c	837$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443.61	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Under	49c	700$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	267	55.8%149 W · 118 L	+12.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	47c	400$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	48c	246$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.92	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	48c	200$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under	48c	146.14$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.29	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb7…8d07backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	47cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…97b3backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	213	38%81 W · 132 L	-12.5wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…c04ebacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9693…1c29backed Over	52c	23.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6741…ba00backed Over	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	10	50%5 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 226.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event