NBA · resolved market
Spread: Suns (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac75365d4a3129251aaf858dd2ab246967bcfb373c273d6d6507da9e6c0e726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Suns | 50c | 21,422$10,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,711.09 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Pelicans | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans | 52c | 20,000$10,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,399.97 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Pelicans | 51c | 18,000$9,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,180 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 49c | 15,660$7,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,064.18 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Suns | 49c | 8,553$4,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,346.66 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Suns | 50c | 7,070$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,535 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Suns | 50c | 6,935$3,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,467.5 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Pelicans | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Pelicans | 50c | 4,167$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.38 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 49c | 4,132$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.1 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Pelicans | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 50c | 2,860$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Suns | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | -16.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Suns | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Suns | 48c | 1,953$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.32 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 48c | 1,443$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.96 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Suns | 48c | 1,383$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.16 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Suns | 49c | 1,326$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.38 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Suns | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Suns | 48c | 975$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Suns | 52c | 937$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.76 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Pelicans | 48c | 937$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.76 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Suns | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Pelicans | 50c | 783.12$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.56 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Suns | 48c | 779.17$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.17 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Suns | 48c | 627$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Pelicans | 50c | 550$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 139 | 43.2%60 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Pelicans | 50c | 519.54$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.18 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Pelicans | 14c | 517.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 49c | 480.06$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.06 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f21…fa6dbacked Suns | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Suns | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…0566backed Suns | 48c | 376$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 376$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Suns | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Pelicans | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 49c | 147.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Pelicans | 50c | 115$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Suns | 49c | 112.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Suns | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Suns | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Suns | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Pelicans | 50c | 86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked Suns | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 271 | 62.4%169 W · 102 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06b7…5479backed Suns | 51c | 52.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Suns | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Pelicans | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Suns | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Pelicans | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Suns | 51c | 34.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Suns | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…970ebacked Pelicans | 53c | 28.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca91…6d49backed Pelicans | 53c | 26.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Suns | 48c | 25.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pelicans | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Pelicans | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Suns | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1fa0backed Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Suns | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Suns | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Suns (-8.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. SunsSuns won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Suns (-6.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-7.5)Suns won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.