NFL · resolved market
Deshaun Watson suspended for personal misconduct?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd94f417776e2360166f14a8051ae26dda4f62443b68aab2ba480af1cd3bfee48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 79c | 11,694$9,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,443.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 24c | 7,677$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.64 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 25c | 5,187$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.35 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 18c | 2,894$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.74 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 15c | 2,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 1,663$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.77 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 19c | 801.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…1c91backed Yes | 14c | 565.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 22c | 480.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 420.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…d829backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…b660backed Yes | 19c | 285.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -5.8wins | -0.24per pick | 28cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 39c | 284.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.37 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 43c | 232.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…d636backed Yes | 10c | 217.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1130…f920backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…5a5dbacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 17c | 199.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 17c | 176.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9478…63f5backed Yes | 21c | 175.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 15c | 141.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…b38fbacked Yes | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…d333backed Yes | 23c | 130.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 16c | 110$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…ce87backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a51…9818backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3598…5b3fbacked Yes | 17c | 97.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 92.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41bb…2526backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…7f55backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c0…2d63backed Yes | 40c | 25.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.