Tennis · resolved market
Hersonissos 2: Robin Bertrand vs Alex Rybakov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd95bbade08b0770d43c18ab9084f924c53b3d6ea03038d14dc85bba51e628802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Robin Bertrandof Robin Bertrand, Alex Rybakov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,801 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Alex Rybakov | 52c | 3,384$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.97 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Robin Bertrand | 48c | 1,414$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.15 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Robin Bertrand | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.75 | 971 | 41.4%402 W · 569 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Alex Rybakov | 45c | 1,000$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.44 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…67e1backed Robin Bertrand | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Robin Bertrand | 69c | 758.69$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.45 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked Alex Rybakov | 21c | 506.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 275 | 66.5%183 W · 92 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Alex Rybakov | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 469 | 32%150 W · 319 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…6cdbbacked Alex Rybakov | 44c | 433.95$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Robin Bertrand | 54c | 362$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.52 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2818…04a2backed Robin Bertrand | 59c | 339.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Alex Rybakov | 45c | 331.11$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Robin Bertrand | 60c | 324.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 363 | 33.9%123 W · 240 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Alex Rybakov | 45c | 320$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…d3febacked Robin Bertrand | 52c | 317.17$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…5c9fbacked Alex Rybakov | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Robin Bertrand | 74c | 286.28$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2901…f4d6backed Robin Bertrand | 49c | 265.44$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Robin Bertrand | 59c | 254.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alex Rybakov | 36c | 244.17$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Robin Bertrand | 67c | 240.51$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Alex Rybakov | 25c | 227.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Alex Rybakov | 44c | 224.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 573 | 49.6%284 W · 289 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked Alex Rybakov | 45c | 222.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Robin Bertrand | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Alex Rybakov | 42c | 199.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Robin Bertrand | 56c | 169.11$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…6a1bbacked Robin Bertrand | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Alex Rybakov | 43c | 147.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…8f96backed Robin Bertrand | 76c | 137.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58e4…73f9backed Alex Rybakov | 21c | 134.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 307 | 41.7%128 W · 179 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Robin Bertrand | 71c | 133.66$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Alex Rybakov | 44c | 133.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.66 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Alex Rybakov | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 13.7%18 W · 113 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…92dfbacked Alex Rybakov | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | -15.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Alex Rybakov | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 52.3%347 W · 317 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Alex Rybakov | 51c | 112.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…e4ccbacked Alex Rybakov | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 515 | 39.8%205 W · 310 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Robin Bertrand | 67c | 95.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Alex Rybakov | 13c | 87.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Alex Rybakov | 45c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Robin Bertrand | 55c | 82.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Alex Rybakov | 45c | 78.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Rybakov | 24c | 77.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Robin Bertrand | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6d8fbacked Alex Rybakov | 16c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88a…1eefbacked Alex Rybakov | 42c | 65.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 544 | 34.2%186 W · 358 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Alex Rybakov | 45c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 968 | 44.4%430 W · 538 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed Robin Bertrand | 72c | 58.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Alex Rybakov | 52c | 58.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Robin Bertrand | 53c | 58.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebc…8b41backed Robin Bertrand | 57c | 56.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…6769backed Alex Rybakov | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Alex Rybakov | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 692 | 53.3%369 W · 323 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Robin Bertrand | 58c | 51.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 245 | 63.3%155 W · 90 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Alex Rybakov | 43c | 51.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Alex Rybakov | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Robin Bertrand | 48c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Robin Bertrand | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Alex Rybakov | 33c | 46.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked Robin Bertrand | 60c | 41.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Robin Bertrand | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…f632backed Robin Bertrand | 57c | 41.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Rybakov | 28c | 41.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alex Rybakov | 37c | 40.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…8b39backed Robin Bertrand | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Alex Rybakov | 41c | 30.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Robin Bertrand | 78c | 30.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 211 | 72%152 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Robin Bertrand | 77c | 30.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5037…a863backed Alex Rybakov | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked Robin Bertrand | 57c | 27.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Robin Bertrand | 58c | 24.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 658 | 49.4%325 W · 333 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcc…b84cbacked Robin Bertrand | 57c | 24.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bad…1d19backed Alex Rybakov | 46c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7027…fababacked Robin Bertrand | 56c | 23.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1031…e5bdbacked Alex Rybakov | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…7a95backed Robin Bertrand | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Robin Bertrand | 55c | 19.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Robin Bertrand | 76c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 439 | 51.9%228 W · 211 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.