Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd95e81a1f9606f26db6ae87bf9c7a816e81aa774b5514d626220eba940f9960c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 4,080$3,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 5c | 2,326$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…679ebacked Yes | 69c | 1,719$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 1,600$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.91 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed No | 37c | 520$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.18 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 37c | 500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 13c | 485.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…21b3backed Yes | 12c | 424.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 380.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 63c | 359.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 261.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 15c | 134.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed No | 60c | 98.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 80.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 38c | 36.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 47c | 31.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92e6…8222backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Yes | 65c | 23.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a63…fe88backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will Hannover 96 vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.