Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96c8adc25a63ff86a426d870e6a6688c72604ce07f0050280d3d670366a3c7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof L1ga Team, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7600…4478backed Team Lynx | 35c | 3,200$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.99 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…f087backed L1ga Team | 71c | 1,475$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.46 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Lynx | 42c | 632.22$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.22 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed L1ga Team | 71c | 600$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked L1ga Team | 29c | 592.26$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.76 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 33c | 554.73$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 512.88$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.12 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed L1ga Team | 56c | 454$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed L1ga Team | 71c | 411.4$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.59 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Team Lynx | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Team Lynx | 29c | 358.45$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.05 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Lynx | 35c | 288.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.57 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Lynx | 33c | 262.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.28 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 19c | 246.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Team Lynx | 37c | 225.55$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.55 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…b24abacked L1ga Team | 65c | 203.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…5403backed L1ga Team | 56c | 128.87$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 80.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed L1ga Team | 65c | 53.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed L1ga Team | 78c | 46.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed L1ga Team | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed L1ga Team | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed L1ga Team | 66c | 27.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team | 70c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3)Team Lynx won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.