Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7905acc4fde422018136f84db7c9c7fb1ccdce61cf80cb8a97a6bca8fcc180ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed L1ga Team | 69c | 1,500$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.62 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Lynx | 38c | 689.91$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 616.05$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.62 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Lynx | 30c | 615.36$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed L1ga Team | 72c | 358.47$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…df1abacked Team Lynx | 42c | 299.97$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.99 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Team Lynx | 36c | 274.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed L1ga Team | 58c | 221.19$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.9 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Team Lynx | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Lynx | 45c | 195.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Lynx | 32c | 113.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Lynx | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…cc22backed Team Lynx | 19c | 89.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team | 58c | 41.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59b…916bbacked L1ga Team | 71c | 37.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed L1ga Team | 51c | 30.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Team Lynx | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed L1ga Team | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed L1ga Team | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed L1ga Team | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3)Team Lynx won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.