Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8805deab41d65b747d8e33286b445a3397412c503bbd80966a96b2cf398cafd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof L1ga Team, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 2,700$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.98 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked L1ga Team | 67c | 2,377$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.74 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed L1ga Team | 74c | 2,133$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.92 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed L1ga Team | 68c | 1,723$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.29 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked L1ga Team | 4c | 1,600$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed L1ga Team | 73c | 1,038$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked L1ga Team | 78c | 994.02$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.53 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Lynx | 3c | 956$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.4 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed L1ga Team | 72c | 948.16$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked Team Lynx | 23c | 882.68$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +337.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Lynx | 25c | 842.01$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.61 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Team Lynx | 32c | 817.94$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.2 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Lynx | 54c | 758.21$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.96 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…0e79backed Team Lynx | 39c | 701.21$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 667.27$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.43 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 648.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.93 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Team Lynx | 38c | 593.54$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.66 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Team Lynx | 33c | 577.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.57 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 560.82$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.31 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…3a1abacked L1ga Team | 69c | 521.81$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46fe…a43dbacked L1ga Team | 74c | 514.19$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1142…a68abacked L1ga Team | 2c | 513.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Team Lynx | 26c | 464.19$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.5 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed L1ga Team | 73c | 449.39$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Team Lynx | 19c | 367.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Lynx | 30c | 338.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd5…b24abacked L1ga Team | 72c | 315.53$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Lynx | 27c | 307.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.92 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked L1ga Team | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked L1ga Team | 75c | 285$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Team Lynx | 18c | 275.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.62 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Team Lynx | 36c | 275.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.01 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed L1ga Team | 73c | 270.46$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked L1ga Team | 18c | 269.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 56 | 1.8%1 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Team Lynx | 77c | 252.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Team Lynx | 32c | 212.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 208$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked Team Lynx | 36c | 202.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed L1ga Team | 75c | 175.32$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked L1ga Team | 70c | 173.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.45 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked L1ga Team | 74c | 168.18$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed L1ga Team | 72c | 138.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 59.4%63 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…719cbacked Team Lynx | 9c | 138$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed L1ga Team | 70c | 128.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Lynx | 14c | 125$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed L1ga Team | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Lynx | 24c | 114.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed L1ga Team | 75c | 106.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 69c | 100.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Team Lynx | 32c | 89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed L1ga Team | 72c | 87.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…621fbacked Team Lynx | 29c | 85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +249.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…5403backed L1ga Team | 68c | 80.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Team Lynx | 26c | 76.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…8dcfbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf37…58b4backed Team Lynx | 31c | 59.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked L1ga Team | 48c | 57.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Team Lynx | 32c | 57.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a73…9daabacked L1ga Team | 61c | 47.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Lynx | 32c | 44.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed L1ga Team | 78c | 43.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed L1ga Team | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed L1ga Team | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…ac90backed Team Lynx | 36c | 34.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e4…4113backed Team Lynx | 41c | 31.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…3812backed Team Lynx | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…db07backed L1ga Team | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed L1ga Team | 72c | 27.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…af66backed L1ga Team | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed L1ga Team | 51c | 21.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…e152backed L1ga Team | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…c0e3backed L1ga Team | 76c | 17.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…fae5backed L1ga Team | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.