Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd978abe98c25bebe6d9c09617e22cf595b8d067d959ad9e3b55ea51257267766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Michigan State Spartans, Illinois Fighting Illini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 6,250$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 226 | 45.6%103 W · 123 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State Spartans | 48c | 2,025$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 1,494$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.89 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 1,145$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.71 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…363dbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 987.75$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan State Spartans | 49c | 710.63$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.42 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 599.45$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 49c | 186$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 122$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Michigan State Spartans | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Illinois Fighting Illini | 53c | 54.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 25.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Illinois Fighting Illini | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)this page
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.