Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0f19f73bb295c93d4464c276c6b400bb185aff97996cf7ad67631cb9223e807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 50c | 55,367$27,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,644.26 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 51c | 22,500$11,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,025 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 49c | 21,237$10,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,778.02 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Over | 51c | 11,127$5,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,452.36 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…ef8abacked Under | 53c | 4,500$2,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,385 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.76 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,779$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,438.43 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ea…0637backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 51c | 1,964$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.13 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 48c | 800$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 50c | 720$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 51c | 539.95$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.76 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 480$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.6 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 49c | 365.12$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.21 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 52c | 359$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.68 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 51c | 337.62$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.49 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 48c | 325.12$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.06 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 51c | 314.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 58c | 207.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 42c | 199.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.93 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 48c | 131$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 102.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…20eebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Over | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 48c | 60.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 49c | 39.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 722 | 48.8%352 W · 370 L | -23.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 143.5this page
- Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-1.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.