Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99743914f7d47e92c37442fd6acd73474ac8d02173d03cadbe50954793ca8d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,844 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 27c | 350$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 29c | 319.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 72c | 310.28$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 27c | 191.91$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 175.75$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 28c | 166.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 33c | 151.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 30c | 148.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 147.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 16c | 127.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 41c | 122.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 122.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 27c | 118.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 33c | 100.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 87.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 79.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 73.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 66.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…fa0dbacked Yes | 39c | 64.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 55.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 37c | 53.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 50.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 39c | 48.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 47.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 42.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 67c | 40.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 40.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 30c | 35.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe275…b282backed No | 80c | 32.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…ec02backed Yes | 35c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 21.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 77c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 63c | 15.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…fd3fbacked No | 77c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 78cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.