Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c94b6cb3b509136d3c694761f8a682c7771d63d91365c3f85e0cae447104124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,729 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 43c | 573.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 51c | 524.15$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 55c | 421.55$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.05 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 26c | 310.38$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes | 55c | 299.73$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.88 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 287.72$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 49c | 279.74$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.84 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 62c | 244.61$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 50c | 225$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 215.71$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 215.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 7c | 206.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 54c | 199.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…c0b5backed Yes | 45c | 193.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 178.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…df08backed No | 50c | 174$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 46c | 153.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 36c | 146.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 54c | 146.1$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732d…ca85backed Yes | 47c | 139$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 118.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 52c | 118.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…375fbacked No | 45c | 111.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 109.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 15c | 107.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…c51ebacked Yes | 57c | 105.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 38c | 104.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 48c | 99.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 46c | 99.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 52c | 95.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 52c | 86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 83.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 79.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 39c | 73.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 71c | 70.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 45c | 68.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bae…61b8backed Yes | 43c | 66.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 61c | 65.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 59c | 60.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2404…8183backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 46c | 58.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 70c | 57.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…3255backed Yes | 61c | 56.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 55c | 56.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 43c | 55.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 45c | 55.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 58c | 51.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…95c9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 56c | 49.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a3…bce8backed No | 65c | 48.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…a27cbacked No | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 46.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 38c | 45.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…bdd7backed Yes | 56c | 44.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaee…e27abacked Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…2b5ebacked No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 48c | 41.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 57c | 40.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cc…881fbacked No | 45c | 40.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…1b8cbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 64c | 39.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 38.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 65c | 37.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8b…b72cbacked Yes | 58c | 36.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 53c | 36.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…6b18backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…8aeabacked Yes | 52c | 35.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 44c | 35.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…bbd4backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 41c | 33.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 31c | 32.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 31.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…8eb5backed No | 46c | 31.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…c756backed No | 39c | 30.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe177…c731backed No | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 57c | 28.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 26.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.