TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,729 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x579a…9908backed No43c573.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.6612154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb082…30e0backed Yes51c524.15$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.32254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc96c…b868backed Yes55c421.55$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0529137.8%110 W · 181 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No26c310.38$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9446626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cf…baa4backed Yes55c299.73$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.884228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c287.72$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No49c279.74$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8458349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes62c244.61$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff65…f1cdbacked No50c225$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1125518.2%10 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No59c215.71$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.561,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No44c215.35$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.994,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No7c206.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3933620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.998762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes51c194.23$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2330141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ac…c0b5backed Yes45c193.67$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.87560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc25d…67b3backed Yes56c178.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2811161.3%68 W · 43 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc9d…df08backed No50c174$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No46c153.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.431,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes36c146.66$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.251,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes54c146.1$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.212,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x732d…ca85backed Yes47c139$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No12c118.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x6230…6debbacked Yes52c118.48$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.582437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae31…375fbacked No45c111.26$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No37c109.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.21,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No15c107.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.061,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc585…c51ebacked Yes57c105.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.562657.7%15 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes38c104.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.046835.3%24 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a38…ada9backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1423633.1%78 W · 158 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf657…f8d0backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes55c99.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes48c99.94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9410562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No46c99.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.623,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes36c98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.723,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4c5…2420backed Yes52c95.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.377250%36 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68c…779dbacked Yes52c86$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.244843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-8.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No53c83.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.53,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3621333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes63c79.77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.811,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No39c73.22$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.531,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes71c70.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No45c68.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.731,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bae…61b8backed Yes43c66.71$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.714647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf074…2fd0backed Yes61c65.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.222657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+34.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x974c…7ba3backed Yes59c60.78$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.782725.9%7 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2404…8183backed Yes50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7d…305ebacked No46c58.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.653458.8%20 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes70c57.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4440935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf31…3255backed Yes61c56.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.713850%19 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes55c56.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed No43c55.86$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.021,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No45c55.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252839.3%11 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f10…0060backed Yes58c51.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.746931.9%22 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f72…95c9backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.54032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes56c49.65$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7614626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4a3…bce8backed No65c48.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.46366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb946…a27cbacked No53c47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No30c46.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.041,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc73d…565abacked Yes38c45.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.275139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc04…bdd7backed Yes56c44.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaee…e27abacked Yes50c44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.843,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…2b5ebacked No53c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes48c41.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5815047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1203…3947backed Yes57c40.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3915639.7%62 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04cc…881fbacked No45c40.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.166141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93e2…1b8cbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2599…747ebacked No64c39.49$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.252684.6%22 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x684f…cef7backed No64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255435.2%19 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12b2…74b8backed No64c38.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258968.5%61 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No65c37.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6647442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No40c37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7515339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8b…b72cbacked Yes58c36.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x883f…0634backed Yes53c36.55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.257536%27 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf547…9ebbbacked No55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.627361.6%45 W · 28 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…6b18backed Yes50c36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…8aeabacked Yes52c35.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No44c35.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.56934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f96…bbd4backed Yes50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes56c33.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9333839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes41c33.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.533336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+77.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No60c33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes40c33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.87140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed No31c32.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes45c31.64$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5442438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes63c31.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.535261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd19f…8eb5backed No46c31.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bf…c756backed No39c30.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.86352.4%33 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No52c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe177…c731backed No53c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes57c28.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.412360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0408…3d68backed Yes78c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0621262.3%132 W · 80 L+20.9wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No38c26.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.