South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9f013f03c59048b15af194815b46aeeded327340c4d760c4c7c43a51034b175
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,644 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 57c | 700$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 49c | 609.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 606.02$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 59c | 596.95$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.62 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 537.62$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 66c | 454.53$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed No | 7c | 346.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…4ac2backed Yes | 54c | 259.26$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 44c | 234.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…ed19backed No | 46c | 226.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…361ebacked Yes | 49c | 205.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.5wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 59c | 205.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 55c | 136$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 160 | 41.3%66 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed No | 23c | 125$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 45c | 113$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 46c | 102.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed Yes | 54c | 58.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +93%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…1805backed Yes | 54c | 58.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…7ca8backed Yes | 54c | 55.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…ed48backed Yes | 54c | 53.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 45c | 24.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Yes | 57c | 22.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Yes | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.