Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda09e28c645b23866443003354e3a4707fa24d5ee9d4bc25b23e70f3a32b3bcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCU Horned Frogsof TCU Horned Frogs, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,818
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,818 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed TCU Horned Frogs | 33c | 5,031$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.92 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wisconsin Badgers | 9c | 4,867$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.88 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 67c | 3,960$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.49 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed TCU Horned Frogs | 67c | 741.05$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.19 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wisconsin Badgers | 2c | 662$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 69c | 450$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 61c | 399.4$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.32 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 9c | 398$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Wisconsin Badgers | 59c | 341.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Wisconsin Badgers | 55c | 274.29$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 45c | 227.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8161…99dabacked TCU Horned Frogs | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed TCU Horned Frogs | 78c | 170.31$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 61c | 164.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4b…002bbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 43c | 118.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed TCU Horned Frogs | 30c | 85.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 30c | 83.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Wisconsin Badgers | 29c | 81.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7685…482cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 54.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Wisconsin Badgers | 71c | 52.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0d…7545backed TCU Horned Frogs | 45c | 43.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a8…432cbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 74c | 42.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 26c | 42.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed TCU Horned Frogs | 28c | 42.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…7d17backed TCU Horned Frogs | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…7856backed Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Wisconsin Badgers | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…0bd6backed TCU Horned Frogs | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked TCU Horned Frogs | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TCU Horned Frogs vs. Wisconsin Badgersthis page
- Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5)TCU Horned Frogs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.