Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda138fc4c0939f2b7e14dc33f1420f29ee363f8a37759c451fed30484eea268c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 346.44$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 339.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.28 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 208.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 202.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 174.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 163.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 10c | 151.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 66c | 144.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 130.86$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 129.2$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 77c | 128.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 119.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 73c | 116.53$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 63c | 112.92$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 38c | 108.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 106.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 40c | 99.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 77c | 88.85$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 66c | 88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…de46backed No | 78c | 84.3$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 77c | 83.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 79.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.59 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 26c | 78.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 48c | 74.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 35c | 74.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…ca73backed Yes | 26c | 71.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 29c | 70.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 68.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecb…e234backed No | 76c | 65.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 38c | 65.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 64.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 27c | 64.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 60c | 63.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 45c | 62.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 28c | 56.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 36c | 55.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 25c | 54.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 46c | 52.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 43c | 50.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 45c | 49.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 26c | 48.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed Yes | 25c | 47.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 60c | 45.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e91…ceb9backed Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 73c | 39.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 38c | 37.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…10e8backed Yes | 35c | 35.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fa82backed No | 66c | 34.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0990…7e5cbacked Yes | 32c | 32.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 54c | 31.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 76c | 29.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 65c | 28.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…03e4backed No | 68c | 28.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 48c | 27.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 73c | 26.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 77c | 25.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 23.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 44c | 23.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 60c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 21.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…a1c0backed No | 68c | 21.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 76cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 19.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 19.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed Yes | 68c | 19.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 71c | 17.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…d8ddbacked No | 71c | 16.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4756…e44ebacked No | 68c | 15.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.