Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70e4034a1129eb24a483df9e8fe0619a8531c1fa9858528334e7059bcf6cacf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 72c | 404.29$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.52 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 54c | 369.71$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.84 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 366.62$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 317.14$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 294.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 66c | 288.61$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 281.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 44c | 244.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.38 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 237.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 63c | 219.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.97 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 22c | 210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 57c | 207.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 46c | 202.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 191.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 49c | 181.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.28 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 176.14$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 62c | 157.5$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 79c | 153.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 124.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked No | 44c | 123.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 41c | 118.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 113.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 69c | 109.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 101.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 33c | 101.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…de46backed Yes | 31c | 100.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…25fbbacked Yes | 43c | 99.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 96.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 36c | 95.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 91.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 62c | 91.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 67c | 91.28$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 51c | 89.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 54c | 87.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed No | 69c | 86.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 44c | 86.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 44c | 85.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 57c | 77.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 73.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 68c | 73.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 56c | 67.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 63.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 61c | 62.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…cd70backed Yes | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 57.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 26c | 53.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 35c | 53.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 44c | 50.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 75c | 50.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 54c | 49.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed No | 51c | 49.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 33c | 49.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 71c | 48.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed Yes | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd0…0e22backed Yes | 31c | 46.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 51c | 46.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 59c | 44.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 43.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa81a…dce9backed Yes | 39c | 43.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 25c | 41.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 59c | 40.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e91…ceb9backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 39.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 33c | 37.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 40c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 68c | 34.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 79c | 34.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…aec7backed Yes | 41c | 34.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 33.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 42c | 33.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 46c | 32.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…186dbacked No | 76c | 32.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…9422backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 60c | 31.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed Yes | 39c | 31.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7b…88d4backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 61c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 57c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed Yes | 38c | 28.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 43c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 69c | 27.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 47c | 26.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…5238backed Yes | 48c | 26.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3e…38cebacked No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…5bf0backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 61c | 23.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 59c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d52…f88abacked Yes | 65c | 22.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 60c | 22.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked No | 61c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…0f61backed No | 75c | 20.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on April 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.