Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda572c88fc8165b4540302766c8703aa5da48ca615aae3a4cae63b7090de2c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 29c | 834.1$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 23c | 279.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 74c | 274.56$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 71c | 216.25$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 71c | 211.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 76c | 209.08$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 17c | 154.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 71c | 145.07$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 123.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 69c | 97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 30c | 81.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 28c | 75.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 29c | 68.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 77c | 67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 74c | 60.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 76c | 57.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 76c | 41.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 27c | 37.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 38c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 71c | 32.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 31.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…c5bebacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9948…5da1backed Yes | 70c | 26.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 77c | 25.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked Yes | 76c | 22.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 55c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…3d5dbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 60c | 16.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 16.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.