Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda59aa5857d8264a5d37e3c134238a25481c365a8c0c790c90f5ba676a8ad941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mensikof Mensik, Popyrin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,685
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Popyrin | 46c | 2,198$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.18 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Mensik | 53c | 2,092$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.48 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Popyrin | 49c | 1,363$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.24 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Popyrin | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…71e9backed Mensik | 52c | 480.57$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Mensik | 77c | 465.19$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 588 | 59%347 W · 241 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Popyrin | 49c | 459.16$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.28 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Mensik | 47c | 421.1$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.18 | 317 | 53.6%170 W · 147 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Mensik | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3c15backed Mensik | 51c | 396.86$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.46 | 683 | 50.1%342 W · 341 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Popyrin | 47c | 249.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Popyrin | 21c | 223.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…4f78backed Mensik | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Mensik | 51c | 194.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 693 | 50.5%350 W · 343 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Mensik | 53c | 113.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…93d9backed Mensik | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Mensik | 51c | 97.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Mensik | 50c | 76.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.3 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5c…3769backed Mensik | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Popyrin | 26c | 70.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Popyrin | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Mensik | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a5…80d4backed Mensik | 52c | 49.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 318 | 53.5%170 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeabe…5910backed Popyrin | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…ff7cbacked Popyrin | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…ca3cbacked Mensik | 51c | 39.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Mensik | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Popyrin | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Mensik | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 179 | 59.8%107 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…e2d0backed Mensik | 52c | 24.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.32per pick | 59cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Popyrin | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Mensik | 71c | 14.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Popyrin (+1.5)this page
- Dubai Tennis Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Alexei PopyrinMensik won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.