Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda82d292f250d5e9b407ccf733df2a4d12fd7c0c6317bbb50a21bd355f43c4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e21…dbe4backed Yes | 63c | 985.27$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.98 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 506$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 34c | 265$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 40c | 232.51$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 27c | 224.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.62 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 222.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 57c | 180.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed Yes | 17c | 172.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 160.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 157.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 36c | 133.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 63c | 127.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 68c | 117.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed No | 58c | 115.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 109.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 38c | 87.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 69c | 86.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 82.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 81.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b70…b4d3backed Yes | 41c | 68.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 57c | 67.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 63.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 59c | 47.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 46c | 44.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 43.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 62c | 40.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 57c | 39.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 40c | 38.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 37.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…c44dbacked Yes | 42c | 36.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 47c | 33.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed No | 34c | 31.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 42c | 30.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 54c | 30.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x600c…8bd4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked Yes | 51c | 29.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 50c | 26.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 25.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 40c | 25.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 23.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 60c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 61c | 21.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 63c | 19.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C or below on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.