NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flyers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda92713dcfd1002a861dc7927afe82dbd81a0bcb45a8468e15cebc3adb455f2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Flyers, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Flyers | 31c | 6,767$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.85 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Islanders | 69c | 5,050$3,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.41 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Islanders | 69c | 978$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.18 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Islanders | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Islanders | 71c | 264.79$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Islanders | 68c | 203.12$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c08…445dbacked Flyers | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…8ba0backed Flyers | 31c | 186.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Islanders | 68c | 169.6$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Flyers | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Flyers | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c2…f627backed Islanders | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 26c | 141.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Islanders | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Flyers | 30c | 139$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Islanders | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 69c | 67.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…ec51backed Flyers | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…d379backed Flyers | 32c | 60.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Flyers | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Islanders | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Flyers | 30c | 35.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Islanders | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Islanders | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Islanders | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Islanders | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Islanders | 70c | 26.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Islanders | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Islanders | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…12a9backed Islanders | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. FlyersIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.