NHL · resolved market
Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x900ecfb22add054072f36bc9c943bb05e02369cd1d55dce3ee5b8cf4ae2af764
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $249,051
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $249,051 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 44c | 236,765$104,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,111.32 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 56c | 120,000$67,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,800 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 56c | 104,875$58,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,144.99 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 57c | 5,235$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.6 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 43c | 4,918$2,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,114.63 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 3,355$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.88 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 2,843$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.82 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 210 | 48.1%101 W · 109 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38b…b601backed Over | 44c | 2,046$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.41 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 57c | 1,669$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.3 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 856.97$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.07 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 57c | 676.1$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.72 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Under | 57c | 297.77$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.04 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 56c | 276$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.44 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Under | 58c | 270.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 67c | 247.03$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 39c | 195$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Under | 57c | 174.56$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…3fc4backed Under | 56c | 125.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…19dcbacked Under | 58c | 118.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Under | 57c | 116.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 56c | 106.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 42c | 68.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Over | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked Under | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 44c | 46.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 45.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Over | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…0c80backed Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 73c | 41.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…c029backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…ecfbbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 181 | 51.4%93 W · 88 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Under | 58c | 32.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Under | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…cca1backed Under | 59c | 24.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Under | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Over | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Under | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…c8fbbacked Under | 58c | 17.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Islanders vs. FlyersIslanders won
- Islanders vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Islanders won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.