Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdadd8ddf5fae0b9afa9c255456cc9441ce3f1da3cffecb2dcf56c9cdc74d6c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e22…3061backed No | 5c | 3,087$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 4c | 978.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed No | 1c | 948.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 1c | 948.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 1c | 948.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 6c | 808.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 4c | 778.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 8c | 773.06$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce30…3760backed No | 4c | 753.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 6c | 750.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 625.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 4c | 601.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e7…5744backed No | 6c | 588.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f25…322ebacked No | 7c | 547.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 8c | 474.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 3c | 439.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 7c | 433.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 6c | 343.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…0fabbacked No | 11c | 333.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 6c | 327.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…7839backed No | 15c | 310.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 4c | 300.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…cd3abacked No | 5c | 299.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 4c | 298.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 5c | 292.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 6c | 287.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 5c | 261.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked No | 14c | 260.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 8c | 235.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 10c | 204.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 7c | 164$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 12c | 163.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 7c | 162.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 9c | 137.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed No | 11c | 134.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f12…fb3cbacked No | 18c | 129.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 11c | 117.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 74c | 117.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…3613backed No | 10c | 113.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.