Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Recrent Team vs by Owl Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae7c04062f78a51c16ce7a2438f2fef60029bf3bed063b3e29f19ad10e1d367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Recrent Teamof Recrent Team, by Owl Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked by Owl Team | 50c | 1,274$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.94 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Recrent Team | 50c | 1,014$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.17 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked by Owl Team | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.99 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Recrent Team | 44c | 619.4$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.06 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked by Owl Team | 54c | 551.98$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.99 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked Recrent Team | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed by Owl Team | 26c | 354$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 172 | 48.3%83 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Recrent Team | 50c | 321.94$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.97 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…26dabacked Recrent Team | 48c | 285.85$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.39 | 211 | 44.1%93 W · 118 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked by Owl Team | 33c | 269$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Recrent Team | 59c | 246.73$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…1325backed by Owl Team | 56c | 212.52$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc26f…ce3bbacked Recrent Team | 61c | 196.63$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked Recrent Team | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed by Owl Team | 67c | 160.78$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 520 | 46.5%242 W · 278 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed by Owl Team | 32c | 123.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Recrent Team | 51c | 85.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce52…dbffbacked Recrent Team | 75c | 66.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked by Owl Team | 44c | 60.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed by Owl Team | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked by Owl Team | 24c | 44.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed by Owl Team | 36c | 42.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Recrent Team | 43c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Recrent Team | 43c | 37.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed Recrent Team | 75c | 34.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…ef91backed by Owl Team | 42c | 33.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Recrent Team | 66c | 30.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…cd18backed by Owl Team | 50c | 29.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…52fabacked Recrent Team | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…f366backed Recrent Team | 66c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Recrent Team vs by Owl Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Recrent Team vs by Owl Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle PlayoffsRecrent Team won
- Dota 2: Recrent Team vs by Owl Team - Game 1 WinnerRecrent Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.