NHL · resolved market
Spread: Utah (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb19760dc3596d011246a4b859e7db17fb81dbba59b155d2a58c2f4858b78358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Utah, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Utah | 34c | 386.68$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.56 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Utah | 18c | 310.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Capitals | 66c | 226.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Utah | 35c | 205$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 66c | 121.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Utah | 33c | 120.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Utah | 32c | 119$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Capitals | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Utah | 25c | 93.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Capitals | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Utah | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…aebebacked Utah | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 73c | 72.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Utah | 34c | 58.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Utah | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Capitals | 65c | 37.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Capitals | 68c | 34.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Utah | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 67c | 31.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Capitals | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cf…bf8bbacked Capitals | 74c | 27.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Capitals | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. UtahCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.