NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbf7a1c80e54cfd16d685824591abba0ec42f07c8e2b214b72cbaf56e41dfec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 45c | 7,713$3,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 55c | 3,972$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.43 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 55c | 2,375$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.75 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 55c | 1,677$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.8 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 989.28$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.28 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 72c | 642.32$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd13…62fbbacked Under | 11c | 531.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 477.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 35c | 384$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Over | 55c | 360$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 259.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 44c | 259.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 55c | 183$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 44c | 170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 167.94$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 60c | 113.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Over | 55c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed Over | 56c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 38c | 78.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Over | 56c | 66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 45c | 52.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 43.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Over | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Over | 64c | 30.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked Over | 56c | 26.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 56c | 18.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 146 | 50%73 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. UtahCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Utah: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.