Music · resolved market
Will Diddy plead guilty to any charges?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb223765bd52e0020540266796d9b580b7a5c7496b559ef17ba821b8d0c29c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,307$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…e2d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,272$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 5c | 1,078$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,054$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…2e53backed Yes | 1c | 1,048$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…8137backed Yes | 8c | 1,044$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 803.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…7d15backed Yes | 3c | 743.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 5c | 697.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…6e17backed Yes | 3c | 528.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb33b…092fbacked Yes | 44c | 409.37$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 33c | 390$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 18c | 293$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…b0eabacked Yes | 25c | 197.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 63c | 183$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed No | 50c | 155.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed No | 70c | 146.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…6e30backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 61c | 80.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d16…598bbacked No | 59c | 79.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d44…d9adbacked Yes | 23c | 65.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed Yes | 30c | 63.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…4c76backed No | 49c | 44.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 40c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…95a2backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa686…31c6backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.