MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb517354524cdb5626ac503994dc31c2c20696253c4f9540b64834ac0774bb68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 35c | 584.15$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.72 | 8,788 | 52.6%4,623 W · 4,165 L | +509.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 430.78$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 2,355 | 50.8%1,197 W · 1,158 L | +21.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 330.43$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 1,883 | 52.1%981 W · 902 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 318.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 293.17$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 4,473 | 47.5%2,126 W · 2,347 L | -74.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 231 | 48.5%112 W · 119 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 70c | 121.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 11,805 | 52.8%6,238 W · 5,567 L | +218.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 107.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 5,225 | 54.5%2,850 W · 2,375 L | +226.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 68c | 107.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 5,613 | 50.5%2,833 W · 2,780 L | +24.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 107.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 9,947 | 46.4%4,619 W · 5,328 L | +38.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 459 | 58.4%268 W · 191 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 17c | 87.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4,504 | 44.9%2,024 W · 2,480 L | +86.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1,908 | 52.9%1,010 W · 898 L | +15.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 77.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1,746 | 49.1%858 W · 888 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 66.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed Philadelphia Phillies | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 36.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 77c | 34.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 76c | 33.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 33.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,825 | 49.3%899 W · 926 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 28.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…cd73backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 709 | 37.7%267 W · 442 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.