MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343f360060c6833b06bd98c9cc191ad1cf65cb401b2c7088b1ae085f162be96c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 8,864$3,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,487.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 7,133$4,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,481.71 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 1,196$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 1,053$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.26 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 1,050$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.87 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 1,000$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.2 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 721$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 472.5$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…7690backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 166.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 23c | 152$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 38c | 150.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 150.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 139.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.18 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 136$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 13c | 133.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 119.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 105.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 96.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 89.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 72.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 71.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 71.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…4b13backed Philadelphia Phillies | 60c | 58.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 119 | 61.3%73 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 64c | 58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 55.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 53.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 40c | 43.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 28.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 37c | 27.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 22.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.