MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros winning after 5 innings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb704b74fa916cf7dbbee59eb4cc978f19c6b0c289eea84fb87c54a7d5afc803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 33c | 4,183$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.88 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…33a1backed Yes | 53c | 2,352$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 41c | 1,677$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked No | 10c | 1,385$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.59 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…7da3backed Yes | 55c | 1,247$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.35 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +5.9wins | +0.35per pick | 59cpaid | +80%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Yes | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked No | 22c | 652.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.58 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 58c | 382$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…63d8backed Yes | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes | 55c | 230$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +10.0wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed No | 49c | 92.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed No | 49c | 82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked No | 49c | 76.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked No | 49c | 60.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…958ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 52c | 39.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…19c4backed Yes | 60c | 17.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.