Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8c8705869596c962a202c9dcc30d21fd54fea41cc69abd6181d50ceed27bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,699
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 349.92$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 44c | 225.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 72c | 224.09$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…1da7backed Yes | 45c | 199.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 39c | 168.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 50c | 165.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 65c | 164.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 31c | 142.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 138.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 44c | 134.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 131.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 108.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 105.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 99.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed No | 67c | 97.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 95.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 53c | 93.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 43c | 91.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 55c | 90.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 23c | 86.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed No | 60c | 85.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 48c | 82.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 59c | 81.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 78.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 75.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 42c | 71.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 48c | 68.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 53c | 66.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 63c | 56.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 49c | 56.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 74c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…7b25backed Yes | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 53.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 51.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 50c | 48.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 44.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 28c | 44.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 40c | 43.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3db…f112backed Yes | 48c | 41.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 50c | 41.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 55c | 40.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 58c | 38.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 36.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 55c | 36.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 36c | 34.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…ba8bbacked Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…6dabbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 68c | 29.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 29.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 38c | 28.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 28.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 28.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 56c | 26.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 56c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 24.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 43c | 23.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…bec1backed Yes | 50c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 49c | 20.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 19.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 58c | 18.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 59c | 17.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.