Fifa International · resolved market
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba2dc28db3519af0fa81a37176955666b27b62463590d8b6e34c24a644909aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 12c | 3,310$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.64 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 9c | 2,090$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…8e5cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,099$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa8…4de1backed Yes | 7c | 1,036$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 771.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.72 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f17…c1dbbacked Yes | 9c | 734.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 288 | 8%23 W · 265 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…2f0abacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…c6aabacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 504.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…56f1backed Yes | 9c | 322.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 108 | 23.1%25 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…7dcabacked Yes | 8c | 241.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…7eafbacked Yes | 6c | 233.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 208 | 50.5%105 W · 103 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 9c | 230.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ed…baa9backed Yes | 11c | 228.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +529.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…c4bfbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…cf77backed Yes | 15c | 202.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 81 | 19.8%16 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f7…319bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…33e2backed Yes | 9c | 188.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeef…267abacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa62…fa78backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…8088backed Yes | 12c | 100.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be2…4c5bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca09…d50ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ded…99fcbacked No | 76c | 40.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?this page
- Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?No won
- Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.