Fifa International · resolved market
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8cc4530bfeaa4104bbdb06be0c1ee01c6ae8eb66992604ac093034c45298c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 61c | 2,674$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.7 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 39c | 2,582$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.25 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 1,452$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.67 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked No | 63c | 1,216$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.38 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,031$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1060…d28bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 937.78$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.95 | 199 | 39.7%79 W · 120 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 744.56$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.77 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 610.73$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.59 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 592.61$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…3f71backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 19.6%44 W · 180 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…4c93backed Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3a…a56bbacked Yes | 38c | 499.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 226 | 43.4%98 W · 128 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 432.01$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.89 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 61c | 384.06$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…1c51backed Yes | 39c | 374.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d7…101ebacked Yes | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2739…fd7cbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 235.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 59c | 199.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 59c | 186.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 57c | 178.02$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,204 | 48.9%589 W · 615 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 168.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…de87backed Yes | 41c | 166.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 123 | 20.3%25 W · 98 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 243 | 44.4%108 W · 135 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e4…93f2backed Yes | 44c | 149.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744b…848ebacked Yes | 38c | 145.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…497abacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 208 | 62%129 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 112.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Yes | 37c | 88.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 56c | 88.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2770…eecbbacked Yes | 39c | 85.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae43…5701backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…137ebacked Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0425…5d14backed Yes | 39c | 73.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 283 | 26.5%75 W · 208 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…5713backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 28.3%34 W · 86 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 59c | 55.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 62c | 54.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d6…fab4backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4369…4e32backed Yes | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5691…b50dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1e…f4edbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1b89backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae4…83dfbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1d…245fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…8eaebacked Yes | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 329 | 28%92 W · 237 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…4fc4backed Yes | 38c | 49.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…17c4backed Yes | 42c | 47.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…bc76backed Yes | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 60c | 47.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ee…7774backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…058cbacked Yes | 39c | 43.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d300backed Yes | 39c | 43.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…428cbacked Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 373 | 20.9%78 W · 295 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 42c | 38.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 345 | 54.2%187 W · 158 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a5…ca6dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…0e06backed Yes | 40c | 33.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517a…6491backed Yes | 39c | 32.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…9bfebacked Yes | 34c | 30.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 285 | 54.4%155 W · 130 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…00f3backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 76c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9583…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a3…adcfbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…aedebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbc…aa33backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e6…c62bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 368 | 38.6%142 W · 226 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan to score first vs. Netherlands?this page
- Netherlands to score first vs. Japan?Yes won
- Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.